{"id":912,"date":"2019-07-09T13:15:30","date_gmt":"2019-07-09T13:15:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dev.twentytwo.digital\/ukbodytalk\/will-kamala-harris-be-the-next-us-president\/"},"modified":"2025-07-14T18:46:57","modified_gmt":"2025-07-14T17:46:57","slug":"will-kamala-harris-be-the-next-us-president","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dev.twentytwo.digital\/ukbodytalk\/resources\/blogs\/will-kamala-harris-be-the-next-us-president\/","title":{"rendered":"Will Kamala Harris Be the Next US President?"},"content":{"rendered":"

“It takes a leader who can emotionally connect with the voters”<\/span><\/h2>\n

Will Kamala Harris Be the Next US President?<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n

There has been a lot of media attention on Senator Harris since the first live Democratic Debates in the 2020 election race. But can she make it across the finish line at the election?<\/p>\n

To do so she\u2019ll need to win over the Democratic party and gain their nomination. This means rallying the emotional support and enthusiasm of millions of people. How can we predict who is most likely to achieve this?<\/p>\n

For me, there is one indicator that has proved reliable when analysing televised election debates over the past decade, that I believe is more important than the rest.<\/p>\n

The next time you watch a TV debate try this \u2014 if you count the number of emotional reactions you hear an audience make, when a person speaks, you can gauge how strongly they feel about each candidate. This will give you a much clearer assessment of how the general population may react, than by comparing their policies.<\/p>\n

This may seem overly simplistic. I\u2019m certainly not suggesting that you can guarantee an election win from this, nor that the person who gains the most cheers will be the best leader. All I\u2019m saying is this \u2014 elections are emotional. They are won by \u2018swing voters\u2019. Some people will always vote for one party or another, so it\u2019s the people in the middle who need to be convinced. It is not legally required to vote. You need to emotionally compel someone to book time off work, travel across town, queue up for hours and vote for you. That takes more than intelligent policies. It takes a leader who can emotionally connect with the voters. If they can convince you with logic too that gives them a winning package.<\/p>\n

For example, when I was interviewed on BBC Radio in 2015 I explained that Nicola Sturgeon, representing the SNP, gained six times the number of positive reactions from the live audience compared to Ed Miliband for Labour. At the election the SNP increased their seats from 6 to 56, while Labour lost 40 of their seats directly to the SNP.<\/p>\n

In the Democratic 2020 race, Harris has so far gained the greatest audience reaction.<\/p>\n

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She had many things going for her. Her soundbites were delivered with ease, passion and impact. She directed a strong message about racism at the lead candidate, Joe Biden, and landed her point successfully. She even calmed down a rowdy stage by rising above the noise to say, \u201cPeople don\u2019t want to hear a food fight, they want to hear how we\u2019re going to put food on their tables\u201d. While this is obviously a rehearsed line, few people could deliver this fluidly, in the heat of a debate, and make it sound natural.<\/p>\n

Her voice can build from a conversational steady pace, up to a roaring crescendo, winning her several rounds of applause in a single sentence. Her eyes show clear emotion and resolve. Plus she is able to speak in simple terms and tell stories that draw us in.<\/p>\n

All of this led to her coming up on top of the 20 candidates at the debates so far, based on audible audience support.<\/p>\n

This is how I measured the reactions that each candidate gained. During their debates I listened out for the following and created a score for each person:<\/p>\n

Quiet applause when you finish speaking = 1 point<\/p>\n

Loud applause when you finish speaking = 2 points<\/p>\n

Positive laughter = 2 points<\/p>\n

Quiet applause halfway through speech = 2 points<\/p>\n

Loud applause halfway through speech = 3 points<\/p>\n

Whooping and cheering = 3 points<\/p>\n

And these were the scores:<\/p>\n

Democrat scores in order<\/span><\/p>\n

Kamala Harris 55<\/span><\/p>\n

Julian Castro 51<\/p>\n

Bernie Sanders 50<\/span><\/p>\n

Joe Biden 45<\/span><\/p>\n

Pete Buttigieg 39<\/span><\/p>\n

Cory Booker 33<\/span><\/p>\n

Eliz Warren 24<\/span><\/p>\n

Tulsi Gabbard 22<\/p>\n

Tim Ryan 20<\/p>\n

Marianne Williamson 19<\/p>\n

Beto O\u2019Rourke 18<\/p>\n

Amy Klobuchar 17<\/p>\n

Eric Swalwell 17<\/p>\n

Bill De Blasio 16<\/p>\n

Kirsten Gillibrand 16<\/p>\n

Michael Bennett 15<\/p>\n

Jay Inslee 13<\/p>\n

John Hickenlooper 11<\/p>\n

Andrew Yang 8<\/p>\n

John Delaney 9<\/p>\n

It\u2019s important to note that the 20 candidates were split up across two evenings. The audience on the second evening was louder than the first (Harris spoke on the second night). I also feel that Castro gained a higher score than others due to one especially vocal Latino audience member, who even cheered loudly when the word \u2018Latino\u2019 was used by a member of the media panel.<\/p>\n

Following this score, here are a few predictions we could make:<\/p>\n